Are we going to see Chine India War in 2020?

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Very recently, Chinese intrusion in Galwan valley has become not only the talk of the town but it has also grasped focus of global world. Galwan valley has great strategic significance for both states. After 1962 Sino-Indian war, no other escalation took place. However, recent Chinese occupation in Galwan valley has created havoc for India because India considers Galwan valley as its territory. Morever, current intrusion of China has changed the alignment of valley, establishing its fortification, making bunkers by showing its very aggressive attitude to Indian troops. After all these developments of China in Galwan valley, Indian army and Indian government remained in awful silence and reacted defensively. Moreover, India tried its best to resolve this issue diplomatically in last month but those diplomatic talks could not normalize the situation owing to uncompromising attitude of china. In addition, Chinese foreign minister warned that “Sovereignty of Galwan valley has always belonged to china”.

In the wake of truculent attitude of China, Indian army has left with no option of confrontation. For this reason, at the night of 15th June, Colonel Santosh Babu, commanding officer of 16-Bihar regiment approached Chinese camps along with his troops who offended Chinese army and both armies came to blows. As Indian army was fewer in numbers than Chinese army. The area where that fight took place was a sloppy which is considered very difficult terrain situated in mountainous region. According to reports, Chinese army pushed down Indian army into the Galwan river, where, Indian troops died after sustaining head injuries caused by stones in river and due to lack of medical support. As per Indian official report, 20 Indian troops killed in Ladakh fighting and 36 injuries took place. Where as, there is no any confirmed Chinese causality.. However, according to Indian social media accounts, it claims that we killed 43 Chinese troops in return. Nevertheless, Indian social media claim is unreliable because there is no official source of Chinese causalities. Yet, this claim of Indian social accounts is manifestation of those Indian reports as they claimed that we killed 350 people in Balakot which was totally untrue.

Following the causalities of Indian troops, there is rising voice from multiple sections of India. Why Indian force did not use guns? Why it did not retaliate when China was showing that much brutal and aggressive attitude? For countering those questions, Indian foreign minister tweeted that “We didn’t want to retaliate because we were abiding by all agreements (as per 1996 and 2005 agreement) not to use firearms during face-offs)”. In the same run, different publications of India has published many articles which suggest that India likely to review rules of engagement at Line of Actual Control (LAC) after Galwan valley clash which means if again any aggressive action of china took place towards Indian troops then there will be Indian retaliation with gunfire’s. This is obvious that, Indian use of firearms towards Chinese troops will bring double Chinese reaction and that will be fueling to fire, which not only aggravate the conditions two states but its repercussion would be worldwide, since, both sates possess nuclear technology.

According to different sources, its widely believed that Pakistan will be big winner of this Sino-Indian clash . Firstly, the Darbuk-Shyok-Daulat Beg Oldi (BSDBO) road has great significance for Indian military, this road enables the Indian army to bring by road supplies, men, and material, to its posts in the Siachen region which is contested area between India and Pakistan. Chinese troops has captured that BSDBO road which has badly impacted the supplies of Indian army to Siachen region that is good omen for Pakistan, however, these months june,july and august are crucial for supplies in those Glacier region otherwise those roads will be blocked from heavy snowfall. If India is unable to provide basic supplies to Siachen army then it would be difficult for Indian army to counter Pak Army in Siachen. Secondly, Chinese control in Ladakh will provide protection for China Pakistan economic corridor (CPEC) that run through Gilgit-Baltistan, and it will neutralizes the opposition of India on Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) which is going through Gilgit-Baltistan.

As for as Pakistan and its citizens are concerned, Pakistan has always supported China and China also favored Pakistan reciprocally. But, recent viral picture of Indian officer which was captured by Chinese army is condemnable. Chinese army had treated very badly which is against Geneva convention. International law does not permit war prisoner to be treat in brutal manner. Chinese violation of Geneva convention is showing bad image of china at international level. She should treat her war prisoners in proper way with the abidance of international law. Keeping all disagreements aside, there is unconditional support of Pakistan and its masses with china, especially, when it comes in clash with India.

Source: https://moderndiplomacy.eu/2020/06/24/sino-india-recent-border-confrontation/

An anchor with CNBC TV18 for almost 4 years. Also co-anchors prime-time market shows like Power Breakfast, Traders only, Markets Mid-day and NSE Closing Bell.